Birthday Paradox Calculator

Work out the chance that at least two people in a group share a birthday, and how many people it takes to reach 50%.

Your details

Optional; 365 if left empty

Your data stays in your browser

Result

Enter the number of people, then press “Calculate”.

By group size

  1. 10 persons11.7%
  2. 20 persons41.1%
  3. 23 persons50.7%
  4. 30 persons70.6%
  5. 40 persons89.1%
  6. 50 persons97%
  7. 70 persons99.9%

Your result will be marked here once calculated.

Just 23 people pass one half; 70 make it almost certain.

Analysis and suggestions

Once calculated, this shows what your result means and suggestions based on your numbers.

Behind the result

Work out the chance that at least two people in a group share a birthday, and how many people it takes to reach 50%.

Example · P(تشارك) = 1 − (365 × 364 × … × (365 − n + 1)) ÷ 365ⁿ

1 − (365/365)(364/365)… = 0.507297

How it is calculated

Comprehensive Calculator Guide

This calculator gives the chance that at least two people in a group share a birthday. Just 23 people pass 50% (50.73%); 70 reach 99.9%. It also shows the number of pairs and works for any number of possible days.

Why it surprises

The question is about any pair, and 23 people make 253 pairs. Work via the complement: 1 − (365/365)(364/365)… The same maths sets the length of digital fingerprints.

How to Use

  1. Enter the group size.
  2. Keep 365 days or change it.
  3. Press “Calculate” to see the chance.

Formula Used

P = 1 − 365!/((365 − n)! 365^n) | Pairs = n(n − 1)/2

Practical Examples

Example 1
23 people: 50.73%.
Example 2
A class of 30: 70.63%.

Important Tips

  • Try it with 30+ people.
  • Change the days for similar problems.
  • It’s any pair, not you.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Dividing n by 365.
  • Confusing it with sharing your birthday.
  • Forgetting equal-day assumption.

Frequently Asked Questions

People for 50%?
23.
For certainty?
366.
Someone sharing mine among 23?
About 5.9%.

Read Also

Results are estimates for educational purposes and may vary depending on your situation and data sources.